On Wednesday, October 28, 2026, the Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, its first increase since July 2023. The decision was widely expected by analysts after it was signalled in a speech by Governor Tiff Macklem on October 17, 2026.
Consumer spending and business investment remained solid, while overall exports have strengthened due to higher U.S. demand, despite cross-border tariffs. Although Canada’s economy picked up in the middle of the year, recording Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 3.3% in the second quarter, the Bank estimates that growth slowed to about 2% in the third quarter and will slow even further in the fourth quarter due to new U.S. tariffs. In its October Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the Bank estimated that the Canadian economy would grow only 1% in 2026 and improve modestly to 2% in the next two years.
On housing, the Bank noted in its MPR that activity is expected to remain subdued over the next two years, citing “affordability constraints, slow population growth and rising borrowing costs” as factors weighing on demand. It also made mention of higher costs for energy and other imports that would “make construction more expensive, restraining building activity”.
Higher oil prices have already contributed to rising inflation, with headline Consume Price Index (CPI) inflation hovering around the high end of the Bank’s preferred range at 3% since April. Inflation is now expected to climb further, reaching 3.5% by the end of 2026. The Bank noted that higher production costs and transportation costs, which businesses have largely absorbed to date, would likely be passed on to consumers over the next year. The Bank cited the conflict in the Middle East and businesses’ cost pass-throughs as the main sources of uncertainty in its forecasts.
The Bank also noted this situation was not unique to just Canada, stating that with “persistently elevated oil prices and refinery margins, inflation has risen in most countries”. The duration and intensity of the conflict in the Middle East continues to increase, and with no end in sight this will likely drive-up inflationary pressures over a longer term than previously anticipated.
Against this backdrop, the Bank decided to raise rates to combat the spread of higher energy prices to other sectors of the economy and stated, “there could be a need to increase the policy rate further.” However, in his statement to the press, Governor Macklem said the Governing Council would “take future decisions one meeting at a time” and given the level of uncertainty would “proceed carefully”.
With the future path of domestic growth gloomy due to heightened trade uncertainties, and the potential for oil prices to rise even further, or fall should the conflict end, the Bank will need to weigh the risks of potentially dampening Canadian economic activity against fighting increases in cost pressures from sustained energy price inflation.
Following the announcement, financial markets are pricing in three more quarter-point rate hikes over the next year, little changed from expectations beforehand.
The Bank of Canada will make its next scheduled interest rate announcement on December 9, 2026. The next Monetary Policy Report will be released on January 27, 2027.
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